Kamakura Releases 14 Factor Heath Jarrow and Morton Stochastic Volatility Model for U.K. Gilts to Clients
Incorporates Bayesian Insights from Negative Rates in Japan
LONDON, July 10, 2017: Kamakura Corporation announced today that it has released a new 14 factor Heath, Jarrow and Morton term structure model for the United Kingdom Government Securities yield curve to Kamakura Risk Manager and Kamakura Risk Information Services subscribers. The menu of model options includes 1, 2, 3, 6, and 14 factor models featuring both constant (“affine”) interest rate volatility and stochastic volatility. The best fitting model is the stochastic volatility 14 factor model, benchmarked on daily data from the Bank of England from January 2, 1979 through January 31, 2017. The HJM model development effort is overseen by Kamakura’s Managing Director for Research Prof. Robert A. Jarrow, whose 1992 paper with David Heath and Andrew Morton provides the underlying framework for model estimation.
A paper providing an overview of the model is available on this link in both web-compatible and PDF form:
Martin Zorn, President and Chief Operating Officer for Kamakura Corporation, said Monday, “The HJM Model for U.K. Gilts is the third in a series released on behalf of Kamakura’s clients in 47 countries. The world-wide modeling synergy and Bayesian insights that are being carried out by Kamakura’s research team under the direction of Professor Jarrow give Kamakura Risk Manager and KRIS clients a significant competitive advantage. The increased accuracy of risk and return measures from multi-factor models gives management better tools for asset selection, portfolio optimization, and risk management.”
“The model documentation for the U.K. Gilt model again includes a significant section on Bayesian model validation, where a large out of sample simulation of 250,000 scenarios is used to measure the consistency of the model’s predictions with both history and expert knowledge about interest rate movements world-wide. The Bayesian process of model fitting, simulation, and revision shows clearly that stochastic volatility models of yield curve movements produce more realistic and more accurate simulations than the commonly used affine (constant volatility) models can produce. This is illustrated by stark differences in estimates of the term premium embedded in government yield curves. We will be offering new research in this regard in coming weeks.”
Kamakura’s analytical team regularly updates term structure models from all of the major markets around the world. Both risk neutral and empirical interest rate simulations can be produced from the term structure model parameter sets. Model documentation and parameters are available by subscription from Kamakura Risk Information Services’ default probability and bond information service. All of the models are consistent with the need to perfectly mark to market observable securities prices in each market. They provide the basis for very high scenario simulation of correlated risks and for interest rate factor-driven and other macro-factor driven stress tests using Kamakura Risk Manager, both with and without default modeling turned on.
To follow the troubled company index and other risk commentary by Kamakura on a daily basis, please follow
Kamakura CEO Dr. Donald van Deventer (www.twitter.com/dvandeventer)
Kamakura President Martin Zorn (www.twitter.com/riskmgrhi) and
Kamakura’s official twitter account (www.twitter.com/KamakuraCo).
About Kamakura Corporation
Founded in 1990, Honolulu-based Kamakura Corporation is a leading provider of risk management information, processing and software. Kamakura was named to the World Finance 100 by the Editor and readers of World Finance magazine in 2016 and 2012. In 2010, Kamakura was the only vendor to win 2 Credit Magazine innovation awards. Kamakura Risk Manager, first sold commercially in 1993 and now in version 8.1, is the first enterprise risk management system with users focused on credit risk, asset and liability management, market risk, stress testing, liquidity risk, counterparty credit risk, and capital allocation from a single software solution. The KRIS public firm default service was launched in 2002. The KRIS sovereign default service, the world’s first, was launched in 2008, and the KRIS non-public firm default service was offered beginning in 2011. Kamakura added its U.S. Bank default probability service in 2014. Kamakura has served more than 330 clients ranging in size from $1.5 billion to $1.6 trillion in assets. Kamakura’s risk management products are currently used in 43 countries, including the United States, Canada, Germany, the Netherlands, France, Austria, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, Russia, the Ukraine, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Africa, South America, Australia, Japan, China, Korea, India and many other countries in Asia.
Kamakura has world-wide alliances with Fiserv (www.fiserv.com) and SCSK Corporation (http://www.scsk.jp/index_en.html) making Kamakura products available in almost every major city around the globe.
For more information contact
2222 Kalakaua Avenue, Suite 1400, Honolulu, Hawaii 96815
Web site: www.kamakuraco.com